Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xiangwen Liu  Tongwen Wu  Song Yang  Weihua Jie  Suping Nie  Qiaoping Li  Yanjie Cheng  Xiaoyun Liang 《大气科学进展》2015,32(8):1156-1172

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM1.1(m). For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model's forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Niño3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.  相似文献   

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Baiquan Zhou  Ruoyun Niu  Panmao Zhai 《大气科学进展》2015,32(3):401-412

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.  相似文献   

宁夏月亮山西麓找矿远景预测中的重磁资料应用研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

程建华  尹秉喜 《物探化探计算技术》2011,33(1):45-50,119

这里对月亮山西麓重磁资料进行了处理解释,研究了磁异常、重力异常和地球化学组合的异常特征。通过对成矿地质背景条件的分析,解释了研究区磁异常很可能是隐伏的中基性潜火山岩,或是与其相关的铁-铜多金属所为,同时还预测了车路湾南、赵家佬、泉儿湾、王民北磁异常为研究区重要的找矿远景靶区。  相似文献   

发扬李四光地震预报的科学思想     

李方全 《地质力学学报》2011,17(1):74-78

李四光教授关于地震地质工作中地震预报方面的重要观点和思想主要包括:地应力变化与地震密切相关;地震活动带中也存在相对安全的地区(“安全岛”理论);地震地质调查是地震预报的基础;地震是可以预测的,地应力的变化过程是地震预报的关键.他的“安全岛”理论及地震预报思想至今仍有着十分重要的理论意义和现实意义.  相似文献   

基于粮食安全战略下的浙江省耕地保有量研究     

杨丽霞  俞义  苑韶峰 《上海国土资源》2011,32(3):53-56,62

依据1996～2008年耕地面积与粮食产量数据,采用基于粮食安全的耕地需求量预测方法,选取总人口、粮播比例、粮食单产、复种指数和人均粮食年需求量5个指标,分析预测了2020年浙江省耕地需求量。预测结果表明,到2020年全省耕地保有量至少为204.9万公顷,由此可见,基于粮食安全的浙江省耕地保护任务的艰巨性,并提出了耕地资源利用与保护的对策建议。  相似文献   

0903号台风“莲花”的风结构分析     

张加春  饶灶鑫  陈煜  蔡巧晖 《台湾海峡》2011,30(4):507-511

通过对0903号台风“莲花”在登陆福建晋江并沿着海岸线北上过程中的沿海自动站逐时实况风场资料的分析,研究了该台风的风结构状况,得到以下结论：（1）台风近中心最大风速预报值比实测风速偏小,台风7级风半径则比实际的偏大．（2）实测2min平均风速最大值（Vmax）总体上呈减弱趋势,与时间（t）的回归方程式为：Vmax=28．9—0．61t（n=16,r=0．78,r005=0．50）．（3）台风最大风速半径（R）呈逐渐扩大的趋势,与时间（t）的回归方程式为：R=28．28—4．98t＋0．67t。（n=16,r=0．95,r0.05=0．50）．（4）台风最大风速区位于台风后部．认识台风风结构,有助于不断地提高预报的准确性．  相似文献   

基于遗传算法-支持向量机模型在热带气旋强度预报中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

顾锦荣  刘华强  刘向陪  吕庆平 《海洋预报》2011,28(3)

利用遗传算法对支持向量机(SVM)模型参数进行寻优,找到最优参数组合后代入SVM模型中,得到基于遗传算法的支持向量机模型(GA-SVM),利用此模型对热带气旋强度进行预报实验。该模型对热带气旋强度12 h、24 h和48 h的预报平均绝对误差分别为3.01 m/s、4.46 m/s和6.57 m/s;比最小二乘回归法的预报精度分别提高了12%、11%、14%。  相似文献   

0915号台风"巨爵"不同风场资料对比研究     

王文娟  梁昌霞  李广敏  俞胜宾  冯伟忠  吴迪生 《海洋预报》2011,28(2):9-17

0915号台风"巨爵(Koppu)"于2009年9月巧日07时在广东台山登陆,给受灾地区人民生命财产安全造成了巨大的损失.为研究台风风场各计算方法的准确度,本文利用多种计算模型,以及海洋站的实测风速,对各方法得到的风场结构、各站最大风速和风速过程曲线等进行了对比分析.结果表明:MM5预报风场在台风中心计算强度偏小,但比...  相似文献   

基于灰色系统理论的河南旅游业发展研究     

任宏伟  张吉献 《地域研究与开发》2011,30(3):89-92

优越的地理位置和丰富的旅游资源使得河南的旅游业快速发展,对旅游业发展进行预测可以为旅游业发展决策提供帮助。运用灰色系统理论的灰色关联度分析法,对河南省旅游业的影响因子进行定量分析,得知影响河南旅游业发展的三大因素是国内生产总值、人均国内生产总值和民用汽车数量。建立河南国内旅游接待人数和国内旅游收入的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型。结果表明,未来5年河南省旅游业发展势头强劲。  相似文献   

2008年三峡水库入库洪水特点与预报效果评价     

李春红  王玉华  王建平  任立良 《水文》2011,31(1):31-34,80

对2008年三峡水库入库洪水特点进行分析,并针对场次洪水和连续自动预报两种方式进行预报误差统计,两种方式预报结果都表明2008年实时联机水文预报精度达到水文情报预报规范的甲级标准,同时发现未来降雨对三峡水库入库预报精度影响较大,部分场次洪水结合(不结合)未来降雨的预报精度差别很大,且随着预见期增长,预报误差也加大。  相似文献